Each entry quotes or closely paraphrases a public statement or forecast, then records what a later document shows. A forecast that was not met is not necessarily a wrong forecast; we record the gap and let you judge.
18 public statements and forecasts checked against later documents
Right of reply. SDEN and the Council are invited to send corrections or comments on any entry; we will publish them alongside. See Corrections.
Two statements are described as not matching the facts: P-008 (a forecast completion date that was not met) and P-012 (a present-tense statement on the SDEN website that does not match the Council's own plan). We say this only because the two documents are quoted side by side and you can compare them.
What was said
Outline Business Case showed an IRR of 9.04% and cumulative cashflow of £1.54m (CIPFA notes IRR excluded interest and principal repayment).
S11 CIPFA App B, PDF p12
What later documents record
CIPFA (2021): model assumptions such as 725 to 800 dwellings and reliance on RHI ‘not prudent’; SDEN ‘will require further financial support from Sutton Council’. Accounts: loss £76,753 (2023/24), £100,568 (2024/25); owes council £2,457,645.
What was said
725 homes completed by 2020 (2015); revised model: 800 homes completed by 2022 (2017).
S11 CIPFA App B, PDF p14
What later documents record
Full build-out/adoption of heating interface units completed summer/July 2023 (company plan). Brochure states 805 homes served.
What was said
Model included an 80-place care home from 2019 at 12,000 kWh per unit.
S11 CIPFA App B, PDF p14, p19
What later documents record
Outline planning approval changed use to assisted living (C2) in Sept 2016; CIPFA says this was not recognised in the model or brought to KPMG's attention; CIPFA judged the 12,000 kWh rate still reasonable. No evidence found that a care home/assisted living scheme has been built or connected.
What was said
Renewable Heat Incentive income of £52,800 a year (up from £21,219 in 2015 model).
S11 CIPFA App B, PDF p5, p14, p29
What later documents record
CIPFA: scheme no longer eligible; assumption ‘not prudent’; without RHI SDEN needs substantially more council support.
What was said
Extend network about 700 m to the Lavenders (c460 dwellings, indicative capital cost £1.2m); Clarion needed contracts signed before end of March 2019.
S9 SSB report 5 Feb 2019, PDF p2 (para 3.4, 4.1)
What later documents record
No supply agreement signed as of Mar 2026; connection forecast ‘from mid 2027’. Scheme now c348 properties, about 600 m (press) and circa £2m (DESNZ).
What was said
Full planning application for Lavenders expected Q1 2025; heating and hot water supply to Lavenders mid 2026; Heads of Terms agreed.
S7, Phase 2 section
What later documents record
Mar 2026 plan: planning application still to be submitted after design review; supply agreement not final; connection forecast ‘from mid 2027’.
What was said
FID 2024, construction start 2024, initial heat on 2025; construction about one year; extension ‘costing circa £2M’; sale of 2.5 GWh bulk heat.
S19, Lavenders entry
What later documents record
As P-006: not under construction as of Mar 2026.
What was said
‘Further expansion to an additional 348 residential properties is forecasted to complete before the end of 2025.’
S12 brochure, p1
What later documents record
Not met. The Council's March 2026 plan forecasts the Lavenders connection from mid 2027.
What was said
‘Through a robust back-up system... 100% availability of heat to the site 24 hours a day, 365 days per year.’
S12 brochure, p2
What later documents record
Company reports 99.99% availability in 2025 and one outage on 14 Nov 2025 (about 4h15m, 1:30–5:45am). The Sutton Guardian (Dec 2023) reported an outage on 6 Dec 2023 as the 30th on the network since 2021.
What was said
Heat ‘is 80% less than gas fired boilers and 50% less than ASHP’; gas CHP ‘expected’ to be carbon positive within 5 years.
S12 brochure, p3
What later documents record
No independent calculation seen. Business plan projects 988 tCO2/yr saving from July 2023 at NMQ and up to 15,000 t/yr if full potential realised. Current heat is landfill gas engines with gas back-up; ERF connection forecast 1 Apr 2027.
What was said
‘SDEN has an exclusive heat purchase agreement with Viridor... This is the primary heat source for the network expansion.’
S12 brochure, p2
What later documents record
HPA with Viridor for up to 15 MW is confirmed in council and DESNZ documents. Present primary source is landfill-gas engines; ERF go-live forecast 1 Apr 2027; a GHNF top-up (£498,614, applied 23 Jan 2026) is for connection works.
What was said
‘Every house and flat on the decentralised energy network receives hot water directly from the new energy recovery facility.’
S18 website, home page, ‘Why use a DEN’
What later documents record
Council business plan: primary heat today is landfill-gas engines at Beddington with on-site gas boilers as back-up; ERF connection forecast 1 Apr 2027.
What was said
‘Competitive pricing’; ‘well protected from the volatility of the wholesale gas market’; SDEN ‘has been able to protect its customers from higher energy prices’ in the recent energy crisis.
S12 brochure, p4
What later documents record
2026/27 tariff: average 2-bed £750.02 vs domestic gas comparator £770.81 (about 2.7% lower), SDEN's own method (avoided-cost parity). An error left the Apr–Dec 2025 tariff increase unapplied (average undercharge £25–£35), reported to Ofgem. Whether prices during 2022–23 were protected: not checked.
What was said
‘Heat Network Zoning Regulations will be introduced in 2025’; Ofgem regulation ‘expected to be completed across the next couple of years’; Sutton ‘deemed a Heat Network Priority Area’.
S12 brochure, p2
What later documents record
Ofgem regulation went live 27 Jan 2026 (existing operators register by 26 Jan 2027). ‘Priority Area’ designation: no source found.
What was said
London Cancer Hub connection ‘is excitingly a realistic opportunity’; route via a cluster of commercial properties in Carshalton to LCH; SDEN to ‘design, finance and build 100% of the primary heat network infrastructure’.
S12 brochure, p2–4
What later documents record
LCH and NHS connections ‘still being evaluated’ and excluded from the financial forecast. Council forecast construction costs ‘in excess of £50M’ for multiple large connections. Stakeholders seek heat from 2029. No source found for the Carshalton commercial cluster.
What was said
For further phases adopt the HM Treasury ‘five case’ business case model; strengthen scrutiny; new business plan by Jan 2022; strategic options by Mar 2022.
S11 CIPFA App B, PDF p30–31
What later documents record
Lavenders business case in Treasury five-case format (Jan 2025 requisition report). Other recommendations not individually assessed.
What was said
Forecast losses £10k (2026/27), £20k (2027/28), £10k (2028/29); loans repaid by 2050/51; Lavenders income in 2027/28.
S3, finance section
What later documents record
Pending.
What was said
Appoint Hermetica Black to seek an investment partner so large expansion is funded externally (council wishes to de-risk).
S4, Hermetica Black paragraph
What later documents record
Procurement approved; no partner announced in documents reviewed. Fee reported as £120,000 by Inside Croydon (2 Jun 2026) (not found in the council document reviewed).